May is slowly coming to an end, which means summer is just around the corner. Once summer hits, we’re not even two full months from the NFL being back on our television screens. The preseason isn’t always exciting, but it’s the anticipation that accompanies it that should get the blood flowing – especially for fantasy football nuts.
If you’re not doing so already, now is a good time to start filtering through or compiling your own projections, rankings and mock drafts for the new fantasy football season also football uniforms. We’ve come to help, too, as we’re ready to dive into the latest ADP (Average Draft Position) results over at FFC to see which guys you’ll want to target that could be steals on draft day.
Let’s not waste anymore time. Here are five guys you’ll want to grab up if they are still around at their given ADP:
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 11th Round)
Say, what? It’s true that there are better pocket passers and the 49ers took a nose dive in 2014, but perhaps expectations for Kaepernick just got way out of whack these past two years. He wasn’t the stud we all thought he’d be, but he was still the 16th best fantasy passer in 2014 and was a top-10 guy (9th) in 2013. The regression warrants some pause, but he’s now being drafted in the middle of the 11th round in 12-team, standard drafts. That puts him on par with the sparest of spare fantasy quarterbacks and would have fantasy owners believing he’s no better than 16th again heading into 2015.
Considering Jimmy Garoppolo is being drafted ahead of him (the heck?) and Teddy Bridgewater is just one spot behind him, we may have to balk at this a bit. Yes, Kaepernick wasn’t what we wanted a year ago, but he showed us his upside in 2012 and 2013, and he just inherited Torrey Smith in free agency. I tend to think the Niners will give him a little more freedom and his numbers will slowly tick back toward a positive spot. That should keep him inside the top-15 and should give him a real crack at the top-10. Translation: he needn’t be going as late as round 11, but if he’s there, snatch him up.
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (ADP: 6th Round)
Gurley needs to overcome a knee injury and isn’t a total lock to be “the guy” or even healthy come week one. Then again, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher already admitted he is the guy and his rehab from a torn ACL has gone just swimmingly. The point? He’s a stud rookie running back that is probably going to beat all of his insane expectations when it comes to the health of his knee, will start from day one and just might crush souls in fantasy football in 2015.
Running back is the easiest position to transition from college to the pros and Gurley is a generational talent. If he starts like the Rams suggest he will (he was drafted 10th overall, after all), we just might have a beast on our hands. Why, then, is Gurley being taken as late as the middle of round six? Let’s clarify. Not only is he dipping into the middle of the sixth round and often even later, but teammate Tre Mason is oddly going a full round ahead of him, while Gurley is also still on the board when Isaiah Crowell and freaking Darren McFadden are being drafted. There is risk involved, to be sure, but if Gurley is hanging around in round five even, you have to jump all over him.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets (ADP: 5th Round)
Last year wasn’t kind to Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler couldn’t hit him, the stud receiver missed three games and was banged up for much of the season. Despite everything working against him, Marshall still caught 61 balls for 721 yards and eight scores. While those were low numbers for how good we’ve come to expect Marshall to be, he was still fantasy football’s 34th best wide receiver. This year he has a chance at being reborn in New York. The Jets don’t have the best quarterback situation, but Marshall is still a #1 target and projects well in that role for 2015.
Marshall is 31 and could be in mild decline, but Chan Gailey’s offense bodes well for him. If Ryan Fitzpatrick wins the job, things could look ever better, as we’ve seen Fitzpatrick do fine work with his top target in the past. Regardless, Marshall helps round out a solid passing game for Gang Green and still has the goods to make plays on the ball. He’s not the elite WR1 he used to be, but he’s better than a mediocre fifth round option. He’s a strong WR2 that could easily go a round or two earlier in drafts. If you find him in round five, you’re doing it right.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 7th Round)
It’s easy to see why people are scared of V-Jax going into 2015, as he tumbled to 38th overall among fantasy wide receivers after catching just two touchdowns in 2014. However, we know he’s better than that and that last year’s fall was far from all his fault. With a quarterback upgrade in Jameis Winston and Mike Evans around to take away double teams, we should see Jackson’s numbers rise back up in 2015. That may not make him a top-15 threat like he was just two years ago, but he’s too good to last all the way until round seven. At that ADP he’s being treated like the 29th best option. I think he’s closer to the top-25 due to his upside.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 13th Round)
A year ago a lot of fantasy football experts were talking up LaDarius Green and saying an aging Antonio Gates was on his deathbed. Green ended up being a total bust and Gates revived his fantasy value with an insane 12 touchdowns and a second place finish, just behind Rob Gronkowski. I’m not saying Davis is primed for a turn around like that, but he was not 100% last year and with just 50 targets, it’s beyond clear the Niners weren’t even trying to let him do big things.
Davis could surely be at the end of his rope, too. He’s past the age of 30 and 2014 had him looking pretty rough. But he’s better than that and I think he and the 49ers are going to find a way to help him be productive again. The top of the tight end position is shaky with multiple studs changing teams and we know Davis can still be good, as he popped off for 13 touchdowns just two years ago. With his ADP being all the way down in round 13, you can wait and take that chance.
