The College Football Championship game arrives on Monday night, putting the finishing touches on the second ever College Football Playoff. Friends and colleagues Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney will face off in the national title game, as the undefeated (14-0) Clemson Tigers try to take down the Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) and end with a perfect season en route to a national title.
If the Tigers can pull off the win over Alabama, they’d deliver college football’s first 15-0 run. While that’d make history and would be a fun ending to a crazy season for Clemson, it may not necessarily be likely with Alabama being the more experienced team and entering as the betting favorite.
So, who wins? Let’s break down some of the key players and situations of the college football title game to help us pick the winner:
Heisman X-Factors
DeShaun Watson is the ticket to a win for Clemson, just as has been the case all year, while running back Derrick Henry is probably the answer for Alabama on offense. We have two Heisman candidates facing off in this one, as Henry won the award in December and Watson was a contender all year for the award and was even a finalist.
While it’s debatable whether or not Henry was more deserving, it’s pretty obvious that both of these guys are the heart and soul of their respective team. For Clemson, Watson brings a dual threat under center and makes their up-tempo offense one to fear, as he can kill defenses in a number of ways. Henry, on the other hand, can also control the pace of the game, punish defenses with his bruising style and also run right past them due to his explosive speed. There’s little doubt that both will be heavily involved in the outcome for either side.
The Trenches
The harsh reality is that this game is bound to be won or lost in the trenches, as is the case with most football games when you’re playing for all of the marbles. Alabama has a stacked defense and is specifically a problem up front on the defensive line. Clemson has a very capable offensive line, but it’s rather likely they won’t be able to have their way in terms of running the ball, while DeShaun Watson may end up being under constant pressure.
The idea here is that Clemson spreads things out offensively and relies on a dual threat quarterback and a largely finesse offense. The Crimson Tide are much more physical on both sides of the ball, but one of their main weaknesses under Nick Saban at times has been containing elusive quarterbacks and keeping them from extending plays. Their struggles a few years ago against Johnny Manziel showcased this at it’s highest point, and now they have a similar matchup with Watson, who is even more explosive than Manziel ever was. Whether or not the Crimson Tide can shut him down early could be rather key in the pace of this game.
Coaching Duel
Nick Saban is a legend and no one will debate that he already is one of the greatest college football coaches ever – if not the best already. A title win this year would probably earn him that title for sure, as he’d secure a fifth championship (one short of Bear Bryant’s record of six). Doing so may not be easy necessarily, as Dabo Swinney has an unorthodox approach and Saban himself has even admitted that he’s been a bit of a “trail blazer” and that his style keeps the opposition on their toes.
The Winner
A classic clash between a seasoned veteran of the game and a younger up and comer makes for good hype and could make for an even better chess match. The stronger bet is the wiser Saban, but the young vs. old or student vs. master story-line is alive and well in this one.
Ultimately, Alabama just does seem to be the better, more balanced team. Their defense is more talented and more physical, while their running game sets the tone for their entire offense. Their coaching is also far more experienced and proven at a high level. Talent and coaching usually win out, but there has to be a shadow of a doubt in some people’s minds that Clemson, at a perfect 14-0, could just have football uniforms a better overall team and maybe even be a team of destiny.
I’m open to both being very possible, but from a logical perspective, this is Alabama’s title to lose.
Pick: Alabama 31, Clemson 21
Think we got the outcome wrong? Give us your thoughts on tonight’s college football title game below!
